(ANSA) - Rome, July 17 - There could be light at the end of the tunnel for crisis-hit Italy with the recession forecast to end early next year, the Bank of Italy said Tuesday. In its latest economic report, Italy's central bank said gross domestic product would fall by 2% this year and by 0.2% in 2013 if the yield spread between the country's 10-year bonds and the benchmark German equivalent remained in the region of 450 basis points. However, the bank also said the speed of recovery would depend "on the cohesion displayed by the EU and by the normalisation of the financial markets". It singled out the application of decisions taken at a key EU summit at the end of June - which included the use of European rescue funds to help stabilise the bond markets and new measures to refinance banks directly - as being particularly important for recovery. Meanwhile unemployment is expected to rise to 11% in 2013, the bank said. The Bank of Italy described as "positive" measures taken by the government of Premier Mario Monti to shore up the country's struggling economy and promote growth. "Laws passed in recent months to liberalise the economy, stimulate economic activity and reform the labour market have introduced structural change" and will "have a positive impact on our economy's growth capacity particularly in the medium-term", said the bank.